Europe Must Burn the Bridges and Create the Eurobond. US, UK Must Stop Myopic Opposition to Financial Transaction Tax

There is popular support for further European integration, as the Irish vote shows. Furthermore, that may be the only opportunity for the survival of the common currency in the form we know it today. Nonetheless the ECB must be given the authority, if it does not have it already, to devalue the euro and make the economies of the common currency more competitive.

Above all, they all must act fast. There must be a calculated decisiveness in their actions. Actually I tend to think that the two steps – eurobond and devaluation – must be taken together.

Irish Vote Yes in Fiscal Pact Referendum – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

The main stumbling block toward the eurobond is of course Germany although several other countries bordering the Baltic and North Seas are also opposed to the idea for obvious reasons: The eurobond would make borrowing to them more costly than with the national notes is today. But that is what unity is all about. Germany and the others can more than recoup their loses by keeping the huge common, duty free market to their products. The latter will most likely change very rapidly if the euro disappears in which case we may see intra-Europe commerce plummet.

This is actually the great opportunity for Germany to redress the wrongs of two world wars. Yes, Germany has paid huge reparations in the past but this would be a voluntary act, saving the continent’s economy, perhaps the world economy. It would be a reversal of roles: Germany saving the world economy that we screwed up; the opposite from 1939-45.

The exit of Greece from the eurozone is almost inevitable now, due to the country’s political atmosphere. The question now is whether damage control by the ECB, IMF, will be effective enough in dealing with the separation.

ECB chief calls euro ‘unsustainable,’ slams Spanish bank response – The Washington Post.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that he believed the euro zone’s current structure  is unsustainable, and added that the region’s governments must surrender far more budget and regulatory power to a central authority if the currency union is to be saved.

As he spoke, the Irish did their part.

The eurozone crisis is affecting the U.S. tremendously but the greatest contribution we could offer to help, instead of sermonizing, is to cease the opposition to the financial transaction tax (FTT) – intended to diminish wild speculation in the financial markets. We triggered this global crisis and it is it the least we could do. But we do not support the (continental) European proposal because of Wall Street’s influence in Washington. I do believe the republican candidate Romney is also clueless in this regard and will cave in to the same forces. We, with the UK, stand alone on the rock of idiocy.

Regarding the FTT, the UK (that is the conservative government) is just being the little selfish twerp that it has been since taking office. UK’s GDP is much more dependent on The City than their continental neighbors are on their respective financial markets. And PM Cameron’s policies reflect that fact.

Our economic sluggishness today is in part caused by Europe’s crisis and Europe’s crisis is caused, in part, by our political surrender to the influence of money. Everybody will lose unless we have the courage to change.

Egyptian Presidential Election Today, French, Greek Legislative Elections in June – All Critical

The Egyptian candidates, 13 in all, range from islamists to former ministers of the Mubarak regime. The outcome of this election, the first free election in Egyptian history, may have profound consequences in the Middle East. Unfortunately, women have been marginalized in this historic event. Not a single presidential candidate is female. Egyptian women were very active during the revolution which led to the election.

The French will go to the polls to elect a new National Assembly and its composition will be paramount in determining whether President Hollande will be able to carry out his program or instead adopt a more centrist approach.

With the arrival of Hollande, huge differences have surfaced between Germany and France in how to deal with the crisis. Hollande’s call for the creation of the euro-bond has been rejected by Germany, The Netherlands, and Finland.

With the euro bond, the borrowing cost for these 3 nations would increase while others, debt strapped nations, would find borrowing cheaper. The euro bond would homogenize their credit ratings.

All continental members of the EU want to impose a tax on financial transactions which would benefit fiscally in two ways: By generating revenue and by reducing speculation. Only the U.S and Britain oppose the move. But by opposing this tax, and the reduction of speculation, both the U.S. and Britain may be shooting themselves in the foot. If the EU breaks apart, they will feel the pain too. Britain is part of the EU but not of the eurozone.

The Greeks are forming a new government in June and the composition of this government may be the key on whether Greece stays in the euro zone. Further international fiscal support for Greece hinges on whether the new Greek government swallows the bitter pill of austerity reforms. French President Hollande however favors reducing the size of the pill and instituting growth measures simultaneously.

If Greece leaves the euro zone, all bets are off. There is really no precedent in this area so the consequences are difficult to predict. Greece leaving the common currency zone may trigger a contagion effect in both Italy and Spain.

I do not understand why the ECB does not devaluate the euro more to make European-made products more competitive. I believe decisive action in that area should be taken rapidly but it is not happening and the exchange rate is being left to the currency markets where the euro has lost some ground but not enough to really make a difference.

What we all can count on is that all these events will affect us profoundly here in the U.S. The only thing certain is uncertainty.

The Woman in the Eye of the Storm – Video

BBC News – Christine Lagarde’s campaign to save the global economy.

Christine Lagarde, former swimmer, U.S. Capitol intern, and French finance minister who took over the International Monetary Fund last year is the woman trying to save the world economy. And she may succeed. Her goal is convincing world leaders to bankroll the formation of a new firewall to prevent the Greek crisis from spreading to other indebted economies. She is not asking for small change: Half a Trillion US dollars, mostly from the G20.

Her greatest challenge is not only to convince non-eurozone political leaders to contribute when their own economies are in trouble. It is also to sell the concept that the astronomical sovereign debt of some nations of the eurozone is not the main problem. Rather, It is the economic stagnation. Without economic growth, all the shoring up of the critical spots, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy will just accomplish gaining some breathing time.

The European economies must outgrow their debt and the first fundamental step should be devaluating the euro to make European exports more competitive and imports into Europe more expensive. Ideally, the euro should descend to parity with the U.S dollar.

EU Leaders Declare Crisis Turning Point as Focus Starts Shifting to Growth – Bloomberg.

Ironically, it is the strongest economy in Europe, Germany, that opposes devaluing the common currency. The first reason is that German exports are still strong . The second reason is historical: Devaluation of the Reichmark during the Great Depression led to high inflation and the rise of the Nazis to power in 1932.

Thus chancellor Merkel has made the point of blocking the reduction of the prime rate by the ECB while pushing the troubled neighbors to the south to adopt unpopular austerity measures. But the austerity measures reduce aggregate demand in those economies and such reduction is incompatible with growth. Short term spending with long tern austerity only works if the aggregate demand increase attained with the first is sustainable through the latter.

Private investors may be taking up to a 70% loss in the restructuring of the Greek debt. European banks are hoarding cash to withstand the blow. We may see how the rearrangement works out by mid March. There is a lot at at stake for everyone, including the United States, itself with a huge sovereign debt and anemic growth. Let’s all hope that Mme. Lagarde’s firewall stands.

Europe: Technocrats Run to the Rescue

Merkozy’s Men: Advisers Seek to Bridge Euro Differences – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

Europe is running out of time and two unheard-of advisers have teamed their efforts to narrow the differences between the two major partners: France and Germany. As Spiegel notes, the alliance of Merkel and Sarkozy has become so tight that they are dubbed as one: Merkozy.

But some believe that it is Germany that calls the shots:

Dinner for One?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECjz5Y7Antk

Nonetheless, butlers can be very influential. Just ask Anthony Hopkins.

The two points of view:

The French see an approaching catastrophe, the danger of contagion and the threat of the euro crisis spilling over across the entire euro zone. They see fire and want to call the fire department — in other words, the European Central Bank (ECB) — to put it out and to pump fresh money into the system. They view euro bonds, for which all of the 17 euro-zone states would be jointly liable, as an alternative.

The Germans hold little regard for either idea. Euro bonds would make all states collectively liable for the debts of individual states, and that is not a move Berlin has supported. Likewise, the Germans perceive the danger of the crisis spilling over into other countries as being smaller than the French do. They want to combat the crisis at the root level, and they believe that the euro zone will only win back trust if the countries that are part of it were to stop living beyond their means.

The difference is that while the German economy is still growing, the French is close to zero growth. German-style austerity could push France into a recession.

Thereof the proposed agreement for the suppression of sovereignty that the UK vetoed last month and then became the central piece in a treaty – outside the European Union framework – designed to circumvent the British blockade. London is out to protect The City and its quasi unregulated financial practices.

The latter agreement is now pending acceptance in several European parliaments.

Euro News: France, Turkey in a Row Over French Genocide Law. ECB Lends €489 Billion to 523 European Banks in Massive Effort

BBC News – Turkey recalls envoy from France over ‘genocide’ bill.

The proposed law makes it a crime in France to deny genocide when it has occurred. Turkey on the other hand, has the official position of denying the genocide of 1.5 million Armenians by its precursor, the Ottoman Empire, during WWI.

Turkey also resents French opposition to its entrance in the European Union. French president Nicholas Sarkozy has blatantly said that Turkey does not belong in Europe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/business/a-central-bank-doing-what-central-banks-do.html?hp

The massive offer is initially at rate of 1% and the rate may be lowered within days. The banks will borrow and it is expected that they will put the money to two main uses:

1. Purchasing sovereign bonds which are offering a much higher interest so the banks are enticed by pocketing the difference but in the process they increase the demand for sovereign bonds of the troubled PIIGS and that will lower the interest those nations have to offer to sell their bonds. This is like the ECB buying sovereign debt (something that Germany opposes) by proxy.

2. Increasing the money supply may loosen lending to the private sector thus spurring the continental economies, most of which are almost in recession.

The Two-Speed Europe

There is increased resentment on both sides of the English Channel and in Britain, many are comparing the Franco-German effort to save the euro to the German attempts to conquer the continent in 1914 and 1939, this time by economic means. This cartoon appeared in the British newspaper The Independent. Notice Merkel is at the helm while Sarkozy is the passenger. In its latest act of rejection to Europe, Britain has refused to contribute to the IMF euro-rescue fund and many Brits would like to leave the E.U altogether.

Cameron’s EU Veto Could Bring Down Conservative-Liberal Coalition

BBC News – EU veto: Cameron says he negotiated in ‘good faith’.

British PM David Cameron caved in to the Euro-skeptics and the City (the U.K.’s Wall Street) but his partners in government, the Liberal Democrats, who happen to be pro-Europe, are not happy about the vote in Brussels last Friday. The rift could split the government.

The Laborists are waiting in the wings, taking pot-shots at Cameron who indeed has placed Britain in the most isolated position the country has been since the fall of France in June 1940.

But in 1940, Britain had the empire. There is no empire today.

Without the LD, the conservatives would not have a majority in parliament.

The response of Europe to Cameron’s stubbornness was: “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Without Europe, Britain would lose a great part of its standing in the world.

For the last three decades, British policy has been designed to prevent Franco-German dominance of the continent. But that is exactly what is happening now. And everybody is blaming the PM.

My prediction is that the Cameron government will not last very long in power.

On the other hand, if Germany agrees to the ECB buying more Euro debt, I believe the Euro would sail through calmer waters.

Britain Alone Worst Obstacle To Euro Rescue

‘Cameron Is a Coward’: European Politicians Slam British EU Veto – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

“We jumped into a rowboat… next to a supertanker” said David Milliband, former U.K. foreign minister under Labor, criticizing the posture taken by the Conservative PM in Brussels today.

Britain vetoed the 27-nation agreement today and the other 26 member nations had to reach an accord outside the framework of the E.U. Effective yes but it is not the same.

At the center of the British dissent is banking. The financial sector is a large portion of the U.K. GDP – larger than in Germany or France – and U.K. banking laws are modeled after their American counterparts, cut-throat and unregulated. The banking sector in continental Europe is more regulated and as long as anybody could do as they pleased, the U.K. would go along. But  the treaty proposed today, and adopted by the other 26, imposes supra-nationals controls which would affect the U.K. financial sector. British banks would be subjected to the stricter Franco-German norms that are the model in Europe.  Thereof the British veto.

But those supranational controls are the only way out of the crisis. Britain, or rather its conservative government, is being incredible selfish and short-sighted. If Europe fails, Britain sinks.

The euro crisis is affecting both the U.S. and China, two major traders with Europe. China just lowered the amount of cash Chinese banks have  to keep liquid to stimulate internal spending, even at the risk of worsening inflation. That is because Chinese manufacturing is slowing down due to a drop of demand abroad.

Many in Europe feel that the U.K. should leave the E.U. altogether and be like the Swiss. That would certainly benefit the euro rescue and the world economy.