There is no way that an attack on Iran will be limited to a few air strikes and then the conflict will fizzle out. If israel or the United States – or both – attack Iran, we will be opening the Pandora’s Box of war in the entire Middle East. In such a conflict, it is more than likely that the bulk of our allies will stay neutral. Many Iranians who oppose their current tyrannical regime will rally to defend their country from Israeli and U.S. attack.
Among the steps that Iran may take to respond to our attack are stirring up the secession of Shiite southern Iraq thus cutting off access of the rest of the country to the Persian Gulf, disrupting Iraqi oil production, sinking ships in the relatively narrow and shallow Strait of Hormuz to block Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and Saudi oil exports, mine-laying in the Persian Gulf and even in the adjacent Gulf of Oman, unleashing Hezbollah on the northern border of Israel, opening a front on the western border of Afghanistan which is relatively quiet now, etc
Disruption of the commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will send the price of oil sky high. Needless to say what effect that would have on New Jersey’s economy and the entire country.
Notice that in the data below there is no box indicating how many times the two nations have been attacked: Israel was attacked in 1948 – right after declaring independence – and in 1973 – the Yom Kippur War – but Iran was not among the aggressors in either conflict.
Iran, on the other hand, was occupied by the Soviet Union and Great Britain during WWII, saw a coup d’etat engineered by the CIA and MI6 in 1953, and was invaded by Iraq in 1980.
|Population||Israel: 7.2 Million||Iran: 70 Million|
|Wars launched on neighbors:||Israel: 1956, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2008-9||Iran: 0|
|Nuclear Warheads||Israel: ~200||Iran: 0|
|Military Budgets:||Israel: $13.4 Billion *||Iran: $7.4 Billion|
|Per capita military expenditure:||Israel: $1,805||Iran: $105|
|Total Aircraft||Israel: 1,220||Iran: 84***|
|Active Military and Reserve Personnel||Israel: ~600,000||Iran: 875,000|
|Total land-based weapons:||Israel: 14,200 **||Iran: 5,499 **|
* Includes $2 Billion in U.S aid.
** May include tanks, pieces of artillery, rocket launchers. etc
*** Most Iranian aircraft are pre-revolution models, such as the Phantom-4 of the Vietnam War era.
The AIPAC (American Israeli Political Affairs Committee), which is essentially a super PAC, has strong influence in Washington and is pushing the U.S. closer toward the Israeli position of taking military action this year. We should be committed to Israel’s defense; not to Israel’s aggression. I have zero sympathy for the tyrannical regime of Iran. But that is not the point here. The President of the United States should never subordinate the interests of this nation to those of others.
War with Iran is not in the interest of the United States even if Iran develops a nuclear weapon. We are living with countries such as Pakistan and North Korea with nuclear arms. That is why the United States (and Israel) have a nuclear deterrent for.