The Egyptian candidates, 13 in all, range from islamists to former ministers of the Mubarak regime. The outcome of this election, the first free election in Egyptian history, may have profound consequences in the Middle East. Unfortunately, women have been marginalized in this historic event. Not a single presidential candidate is female. Egyptian women were very active during the revolution which led to the election.
The French will go to the polls to elect a new National Assembly and its composition will be paramount in determining whether President Hollande will be able to carry out his program or instead adopt a more centrist approach.
With the arrival of Hollande, huge differences have surfaced between Germany and France in how to deal with the crisis. Hollande’s call for the creation of the euro-bond has been rejected by Germany, The Netherlands, and Finland.
With the euro bond, the borrowing cost for these 3 nations would increase while others, debt strapped nations, would find borrowing cheaper. The euro bond would homogenize their credit ratings.
All continental members of the EU want to impose a tax on financial transactions which would benefit fiscally in two ways: By generating revenue and by reducing speculation. Only the U.S and Britain oppose the move. But by opposing this tax, and the reduction of speculation, both the U.S. and Britain may be shooting themselves in the foot. If the EU breaks apart, they will feel the pain too. Britain is part of the EU but not of the eurozone.
The Greeks are forming a new government in June and the composition of this government may be the key on whether Greece stays in the euro zone. Further international fiscal support for Greece hinges on whether the new Greek government swallows the bitter pill of austerity reforms. French President Hollande however favors reducing the size of the pill and instituting growth measures simultaneously.
If Greece leaves the euro zone, all bets are off. There is really no precedent in this area so the consequences are difficult to predict. Greece leaving the common currency zone may trigger a contagion effect in both Italy and Spain.
I do not understand why the ECB does not devaluate the euro more to make European-made products more competitive. I believe decisive action in that area should be taken rapidly but it is not happening and the exchange rate is being left to the currency markets where the euro has lost some ground but not enough to really make a difference.
What we all can count on is that all these events will affect us profoundly here in the U.S. The only thing certain is uncertainty.