Withdrawal

I am ceasing my candidacy for governor of New Jersey in 2013 today. This is my last posting here.

The reasons are varied and range from personal to a cold analysis of the conditions and possibilities in New Jersey. The U.S. Court posture in dismissing Andrea Dealmagro vs NJELEC has weighed in this decision.

Withdrawing from social media which I had joined for this enterprise will follow.

To all my friends, supporters, and sympathizers: Many thanks.

A View into the Future: Post Script to June-November 2012

Using the previous 4 years experience as guide we may expect:

The national economy will continue to languish with low growth and high unemployment. I do not believe we will enter another recession during the next four years but we will be becalmed. Some states – New Jersey under Christie/Sweeney among them – will continue to apply the brakes on the nations’s economic growth. Neither Obama nor Romney, and certainly not the U.S. Congress, will address the factors in the U.S. tax code which encourage capital export.  Accordingly, regardless of who wins, Wall Street will remain disconnected from Main Street.

Needless to say, the national debt will continue to grow with either one.

Even if president Obama wins in November 2012, we already know his capability for abdicating postulates made while campaigning. We should expect that there will be negative effects on Social Security and Medicare, two social programs which candidate Romney has on his hit list, even if Obama is victorious. Obama will adopt some of Romney’s proposals. Such effects would most likely be cuts in both programs, perhaps somewhat smaller under Obama than those which would be implemented by a hypothetical President Romney.

We should also expect a re-elected President Obama to slightly reduce other social programs that he is now, during the campaign, defending with vigor. Either Obama or Romney will sweeten draconian cuts by phasing them onto the younger generations.

I would also expect that a re-elected President Obama would abandon at least some of his tax positions in support of the lower and middle classes, all for the sake of compromise. Similarly, there will be retreats in issues such as the environment and Wall Street regulatory statutes.

As a rule of thumb, President Obama will cede ground wherever big money is involved. He will hold out better in social issues such as birth control and same sex marriage.

President Romney would be very negative on the social issues mentioned above and similarly or even more accommodating toward big money.

Income gap would grow more under Romney than under Obama although the difference between the two will not be large.

We should expect that either President Obama or Romney will continue making inroads into our civil liberties using terrorism as excuse, even after Al Qaeda is wiped out.

A President Romney would be more likely to get the United States involved in another major foreign war.

With either president, New Jersey should expect very little help from Washington and that is why our own gubernatorial election of 2013 is so important: We will be basically on our own. We can hardly afford irresponsibility, demagoguery, and incompetence any longer.

June-November 2012

This is my last article until after the U.S. Presidential election. I shall not endorse any of the candidates although I believe Romney will be far worse than Obama has been.

After two years of fighting almost alone, it is also time for me to rest and regroup before the big push of 2013. My entire program is posted in this blog and I have presented it in other sites. I can be considered the wrecking ball candidate because I intend to bring down the entire rotten structure of abuse and irresponsibility that the two dominant political parties have erected in New Jersey.

Former Governor Whitman advised newly elected Governor Christie in January 2010 “to above all have fun.” Governor Christie himself said last week that he loves the job 11 months of the year.

I take a much less sunny view of  governing: It is a burden – if one feels responsible for the well being of millions. It is when one does not give a damn that then it can be fun.

I will campaign as vigorously as I can from November 2012 on. By early Summer 2013, I will carry out an objective evaluation of my campaign and the degree of support I am receiving. If there is a fighting chance, I shall get on the ballot. If not, I will close the chapter.

I wish all very nice Summer and Autumn seasons.

The Shrinking New Jersey

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 43 states and the District of Columbia in 2011, according to new statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). New Jersey moved in the opposite direction.

New Jersey was among the few states which actually experienced a GDP contraction: -0.5% and that explains why government revenue is also down. New Jersey’s unemployment rate was 9.1 percent in April, a full percentage point above the national rate.

New Jersey is now the 47th state out of 50, measuring from best to worst, in economic performance. Only Wyoming, Mississippi, and Alabama are worse off. We are the brakes on the national economic recovery.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2012/pdf/gsp0612.pdf

Governor Christie will go on pushing his fiscally unsustainable tax cut which will have no economic effect because a single such measure does not stimulate aggregate demand – the missing link in our economy.

But blaming the policies of Governor Christie alone for the economic decline is a gross simplification of the facts. Unfortunately, almost everyone, including the media, prefer simplifications. Candidate A vs Candidate B; or Raise Taxes vs Cut Taxes. That is why single issues become so disproportionally influential in elections: Abortion, Guns, Gay Marriage, etc .

The reality is that in New Jersey, regardless of what candidate we elect, the roots of the problems are in the political system. And attacking the system is not safe. I have already been harassed for what I am doing and this is just the beginning. We are not even in our election year yet.

A candidate fails New Jersey the moment he/she shuns to even attempt to revamp that system. I mean really doing change; not just propaganda and token tinkering.

What is the political system? The two dominant political bureaucracies, Home Rule, political patronage, political money, the tax code, the laws that skew the political contest in favor of the two parasitic parties, and more.

But it is much easier to focus on one face than on a myriad of political and economic reforms.

As I have said many times: It is not so much what Governor Christie has done. It is what he has not done. His sin is for the most part in omission.

If elected governor, my administration will be made up of technocrats. The mission will be to put New Jersey on a path of economic growth and social balance. Nothing will be untouchable.

In a presidential election year, a gubernatorial candidate for the year after is a lone wolf. However if we look at the two presidential candidates, Obama and Romney, there are differences in positions but when we come to the actual actions, they do not look as distinct. Obama appears as the lesser of two evils. Telling of our political drought is the fact that many people vote for one candidate just to keep the other one out of office.

New Jersey shall have a more diverse menu in November 2013.

Banning Fracking: New Jersey Should Follow Vermont

At a time when the economy of New Jersey seems to be heading south, it is very important that we do not succumb to the temptation of dismantling environmental protections in a futile attempt to reverse the tide of economic bad news. Trampling on our own natural habitat is not good economic policy.

While the conservative (?) government of Canada is revising (see diluting) all environmental laws to favor the oil and gas industries in Canada, the State of Vermont has given us an example of what is essentially the right course of action: Sustainable growth.

Vermont first state to ban fracking – CNN.com.

I can not imagine a government that calls itself conservative (Ottawa) failing to conserve the pristine quality of the Canadian land. I presume conservative means different things to different people.

Hydraulic fracturing – I have written about this before – is the threat of our time against underground water sources. Water – potable water that is – will be among the priciest commodities in one or two decades. We already buy huge amounts of bottled water because we do not trust our tap water.

If elected governor of New Jersey in 2013, I will not rest until hydraulic fracturing and offshore drilling are banned from New Jersey.

Europe Must Burn the Bridges and Create the Eurobond. US, UK Must Stop Myopic Opposition to Financial Transaction Tax

There is popular support for further European integration, as the Irish vote shows. Furthermore, that may be the only opportunity for the survival of the common currency in the form we know it today. Nonetheless the ECB must be given the authority, if it does not have it already, to devalue the euro and make the economies of the common currency more competitive.

Above all, they all must act fast. There must be a calculated decisiveness in their actions. Actually I tend to think that the two steps – eurobond and devaluation – must be taken together.

Irish Vote Yes in Fiscal Pact Referendum – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

The main stumbling block toward the eurobond is of course Germany although several other countries bordering the Baltic and North Seas are also opposed to the idea for obvious reasons: The eurobond would make borrowing to them more costly than with the national notes is today. But that is what unity is all about. Germany and the others can more than recoup their loses by keeping the huge common, duty free market to their products. The latter will most likely change very rapidly if the euro disappears in which case we may see intra-Europe commerce plummet.

This is actually the great opportunity for Germany to redress the wrongs of two world wars. Yes, Germany has paid huge reparations in the past but this would be a voluntary act, saving the continent’s economy, perhaps the world economy. It would be a reversal of roles: Germany saving the world economy that we screwed up; the opposite from 1939-45.

The exit of Greece from the eurozone is almost inevitable now, due to the country’s political atmosphere. The question now is whether damage control by the ECB, IMF, will be effective enough in dealing with the separation.

ECB chief calls euro ‘unsustainable,’ slams Spanish bank response – The Washington Post.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that he believed the euro zone’s current structure  is unsustainable, and added that the region’s governments must surrender far more budget and regulatory power to a central authority if the currency union is to be saved.

As he spoke, the Irish did their part.

The eurozone crisis is affecting the U.S. tremendously but the greatest contribution we could offer to help, instead of sermonizing, is to cease the opposition to the financial transaction tax (FTT) – intended to diminish wild speculation in the financial markets. We triggered this global crisis and it is it the least we could do. But we do not support the (continental) European proposal because of Wall Street’s influence in Washington. I do believe the republican candidate Romney is also clueless in this regard and will cave in to the same forces. We, with the UK, stand alone on the rock of idiocy.

Regarding the FTT, the UK (that is the conservative government) is just being the little selfish twerp that it has been since taking office. UK’s GDP is much more dependent on The City than their continental neighbors are on their respective financial markets. And PM Cameron’s policies reflect that fact.

Our economic sluggishness today is in part caused by Europe’s crisis and Europe’s crisis is caused, in part, by our political surrender to the influence of money. Everybody will lose unless we have the courage to change.